III       General remarks - 1999 – 2004

a) Ethnic structure of the population

4.         The last census in the Republic of Croatia was conducted in 2001. The official census results were published one year later, in 2002. The importance of the last census results is in fact that this was the first official census conducted in the Republic of Croatia since its declaration of independence and disintegration of the former SFRY. The results of the census show approx. 7,25% (from 4.784.265 to 4.437.460) decrease in total number of inhabitants of the Republic of Croatia. According to the census results, the number of persons belonging to majority increased by approx. 11,53% (from 78,1% to 89,63%) while number of persons belonging to national minorities[1] decreased by approx. 50% and came down to 7,47 % or 331.383 of the whole population of the country.

5.         Results from the 2001 census confirmed earlier speculations on the changes of the ethnic structure of the population in the Republic of Croatia in comparison to the results of the 1991 census. The 2001 census records data on 22 different ethnic minority communities.[2] The largest ethnic minority community is Serbian, which numbers 201.631 persons, which makes 4,54% of the population of the Republic of Croatia, Bosniaks - 20.755 or 0,5%, Italians – 19.636 or 0,4%, Hungarians – 16.595 or 0,4%, Albanians – 15.082 or 0,3%, Slovenians -13.173 or 0,3%, Czechs – 10.510 or 0,2%, Roma – 9.463 or 0,2%, Montenegrins – 4.926 or 0,1%, Slovaks – 4.712 or 0,1%, Macedonians – 4.270 or 0,1%, Germans – 2.902 or 0,1%, Ruthenians – 2.337 or 0,1%, and Ukrainians – 1.977, Russians –  906, Jews – 576, Polish – 567, Romanians – 475, Bulgarians - 331, Turks – 300, Austrians – 247 and Vlachs – 12. Additionally, 19.677 persons declare themselves  Muslims.

6.         Comparing the 1991 census with the data of the last census the size of the minority population has decreased. The most drastic decrease was registered among following minorities: Serbs – 65%, Montenegrins – 49%, Slovenians – 41%, Macedonians – 32%, Ruthenians – 28%, Hungarians – 25%, Ukrainians – 20%, Slovaks – 15%, Italians – 7%, while the increase was registered among Roma – 41%, Albanians 25% and Germans – 10%.[3]

In the 2001 census, a number of persons registered as Muslims in 1991, declared themselves Bosniaks. Muslims and Bosniaks registered by the 2001 census number 40.529 persons, which shows a 7% decrease comparing the number of Muslims registered in 1991.           

7.         Persons who spent over one year abroad were not registered by the 2001 census. Following Croatian international obligations, the 2001 census did register refugees who fled from other republics of former Yugoslavia and are currently living in the Republic of Croatia.

Since the 2001 consensus the number of Serbs has increased. According to the data by the Office for Expellees, Returnees and Refugees from October 2003, 46.068 Serbian refugees returned, mostly from Serbia and Montenegro or Bosnia and Herzegovina to the Republic of Croatia in the period between the year 2000 and September 2003.[4] In total, about 108.000 refugees and IDPs belonging to minorities have been registered as having returned, which is approximately 1/3 of all Croatian Serbs who fled from Croatia.[5] It is possible that 10.572 returnees, who returned in 2001, 9.640, who returned in 2002, and 8.826, who returned by November 2003, were not registered by this census.[6] “Spot checks carried out by the UNHCR, the OSCE Mission to Croatia and NGOs at different times suggest that about two thirds of the registered returnees moved to Croatia on a permanent basis”[7], and that ''after a while, many returnees leave for Serbia or Bosnia''[8]. Referring to the data by Ministry of Public Works, Reconstruction and Construction / Office for Expellees, Returnees and Refugees from 01 November 2003, there were about 210.000 refugees from the Republic of Croatia (mostly ethnic Serbs). Out of total of 210.000 persons, 190.000 fled to Serbia and about 22.000 to B&H.

8.         The 2001 census results caused loud protests of certain national minorities’ representatives. Mr. Milorad Pupovac, the president of the Serbian National Council refused to accept the census results. He demanded a review so as to include all the Croatian Serbs who registered for the census abroad, as well as those who returned in the meantime. The Serbian National Council believed that a further 68.000 Croatian Serbs should be considered in this regard. The Chair of Parliamentary Committee for Human Rights and the Rights of National Minorities, Mr. Furio Radin demanded a further explanation of the census results and the reasons for the reductions in number of persons belonging to national minorities. He advocated a new program for the development and protection of minority rights. Mr. Zarko Puhovski, the president of the Croatian Helsinki Committee, said that census results only confirmed the need to prevent the assimilation and emigration of Croatian national minorities.[9]  Discussion on reasons for the reductions in number of persons belonging to national minorities, Serbs in particular, started. Unlike Milorad Pupovac, Zarko Puhovski accepted the census results as “correct and expected” and said “when an ethnic group shrinks to almost one third in a decade, it cannot be the result of natural migrations but movement under pressure, which we usually call ethnic cleansing''[10]. At the beginning of 2004, Mr. Furio Radin said before the Croatian Parliament that 300.000 Croatian Serbs were ethnically cleansed from Croatia.[11]  In its report on implementation of the Framework Convention, the Government of the Republic of Croatia claimed weakening and breaking ties within national minorities’ communities owing to the geographical division, migrations and urbanisation; interregional and overseas migrations (especially during and after the 1991 – 1995 war); higher social mobility caused by increased level of education; mixed marriages that divide ethnic component of the population, which is specially the case with Croatian Serbs in cities and areas which  were not affected by the war; improved identification with professional or social group or the region and, in the end, 1991 – 1995 war consequences to be reasons for the reductions.[12] Evaluating the State Report, the Council for National Minorities notifies “incomplete interpretation of drastic reductions in the number of persons belonging to minorities (Serbs, Bosniaks and some other minorities) in period between 1991 and 2001. Therefore, there is a need for the scientific analyses of both censuses. ''[13].  But, in case of Croatian Serbs whose number reduced by approximately 400.000, it is somehow hypocritical to mention the 1991 – 1995 war consequences as the last reason for the reductions without mentioning possible justified fear to declare their ethnicity owing to the discriminative policy they are still facing. There is no doubt that some Serbs left Croatia willingly since they disagreed with the official Croatian politics and administration and also because of the  war crimes committed during the war. Former president Tudjman used to say that number of Croatian Serbs would be reduced to 3 – 4 % by the end of the war. This was “accomplished with mathematical precision''.[14]  Listing the reasons for the reductions, in their report on minorities in Croatia, the Minority Rights Group International places “the nationalistic policy mainly targeting Serbs, with Serbs exposed to denunciation, harassment, threats and killings, both inside or outside of the war zones'' to the first place.[15] Trying to explain the census results, the Government of the Prime Minister Racan showed the documents proving that Serbs left Croatia in an organised manner even before the Croatian armed forces liberated Serb controlled areas[16] (this refers to the Storm Operation, August 1995). Mrs. Jelena Lovric, journalist of the Novi List comments the statements by the Government and says that “the Government carefully registers what happened on the Serb side but denies all known facts about the Croatian regime (at that time). There was a detailed plan that was implemented in order to reduce number of Serbs in Croatia.'' She added that with such a selective approach to the historical facts, the current regime (regime of the Racan’s government) “defends Tudjman’s policy and hides his crimes''.[17] Furthermore, the prosecutor in the indictment before the International Criminal Tribunal for Former Yugoslavia verses Croatian generals Ivan Cermak and Mladen Markac, states that “During and after Operation Storm, and at all times relevant to this Indictment, Ivan CERMAK and Mladen MARKAC, with others including Ante GOTOVINA and President Franjo TUDMAN, participated in a joint criminal enterprise, the common purpose of which was the forcible and permanent removal of the Serb population from the Krajina region, by the plunder, damage or outright destruction of the property of the Serb population, so as to discourage or prevent members of that population from returning to their homes and resuming habitation.”[18]. All of the above support the position of the Council for National Minorities claiming that it is necessary to conduct scientific analyses and researches to establish the reasons that caused reductions in number of persons belonging to national minorities in order to find out what is required to normalise interethnic relations and trust disturbed during the conflict. But, considering numerous statements and views manifested on the Croatian political scene on impossibility of history revision and doubting already established facts, there are very few chances that the suggested analyses would ever be conducted with the support of important political structures or that it could have any influence whatsoever. Upon the finishing of the peaceful integration of the former UNTAES area and completion of the UN mandate in the Eastern Slavonia, thousands of people (mostly belonging to Serbian but also some other minorities), for different political, legal, economic and security issues, left the Republic of Croatia. Hundreds seek the asylum in different Western European Countries (Norway, Great Britain, Ireland…). For further information on possible reasons for the reductions in number of ethnic Serbs caused by the 1991 – 1995 war and after that, please, see under Items d) Respecting general (human) rights of persons belonging to minorities and the rule of law or IV.II.